Adam Webb's 2019 Grand National Pinstickers' Guide

I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I have putting this together for what is my highlight of the entire year. Every runner gets a write-up and are rated on a scale between 1 and 10 (zero wouldn’t be fair as every horse has some sort of chance).

Number      Horse     Age       Wgt         Trainer           Jockey

1)   ANIBALE FLY     9         11-10    Tony Martin    Mark Walsh (Likely to ride after Barry Geraghty's injury today)

Just like last year when finishing fourth, he comes into this off the back of a fine effort in the Gold Cup and, as a result, would be rated 8lb higher if the handicapper had the chance to reassess the contest. The season has been a slow build up, with dry ground in Ireland forcing connections to miss a couple of intended targets, but he has improved significantly with each run and his second at Cheltenham to Al Boum Photo rates as a career-best performance.

The obvious cause for concern is whether the 22-day turnaround proves too quick for him but, despite that, he has to enter calculations and, with a more straightforward ride than 12 months ago when going fairly wide on the final circuit, is likely to be in the mix once again with Thursday’s rain in his favour.

Rating - 8/10

2)  VALTOR         10        11-6    Nicky Henderson    Daryl Jacob

For a trainer of Nicky Henderson’s calibre, he is yet to win a Grand National of any description, which is quite remarkable to consider having finished second with his first ever Aintree runner, Zongalero, 40 years ago. Several placed efforts followed with the likes of Classified, (4th in 1985 & 3rd the following year), and The Tsarevich (2nd in 1987), but recent years haven’t been particularly kind to the master of Seven Barrows and he appears to face yet another upward curve with this ex-French recruit.

He caused a huge upset on his UK debut, when an impressive winner of the Silver Cup at Ascot just before Christmas after being sent off 33/1, but subsequently disappointed at Cheltenham behind Frodon on Trials Day. He has plenty of chasing experience in France and reportedly schooled well over Grand National-type fences in Lambourn, but, on the face of it, would be a surprise winner. 

Rating - 4/10

3)  TIGER ROLL          9        11-5    Gordon Elliott   Davy Russell

The diminutive but spectacular winner of 12 months ago returns having already succeeded where many previous winners of the race hadn’t by winning another race en route to defending his crown. 

Fourth on his return in a cross country event at Cheltenham in November, a more than satisfactory effort off top weight, he was sent off an unfancied 25/1 in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan where he travelled sweetly throughout and ran right away from useful hurdler Off You Go in impressive fashion. That set him up for the Festival, where he demolished the opposition by 22 lengths to land his fourth success at the meeting and now has the potential to be one of the shortest priced favourites in the race’s history.

Comparisons have already been made with the legendary Red Rum, both Flat breds and not particularly the biggest of individuals to be tackling a unique course, and he looks to have outstanding credentials to become the seventh horse to win his second Grand National at Aintree (The Duke won two at Maghull in 1836-37 and Poethlyn won at both Gatwick in 1918 and on Merseyside in 1919). 

The obvious put off at present is his price considering the task at hand. However, he is likely to drift to a more backable price on Saturday morning with bookmakers keen to oppose a popular favourite in a 40-runner handicap.

Rating - 10/10

4)  OUTLANDER         11        11-4    Richard Spencer    James Bowen

The first of two to be sold at Aintree on Thursday, went for £165,000 to Rebel Racing, and while he was a high class horse in his pomp, a three-time Grade 1 winner over fences including a Lexus Chase, recent performances suggest his best days are behind him and he has never appealed as being the type to relish the challenge of Aintree.

Rating - 1/10

5)  DON POLI           10        11-3   Philip Kirby    Mr Patrick Mullins

A dual-Cheltenham Festival winner when at his very best for Willie Mullins, he was sold for £170,000 to Darren Yates, who had the misfortune to buy Blaklion for £350,000 before meeting a setback, and has shown little since returning from injury this season. Pulled up over these fences in the Becher Chase, a similar fate occurred in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran where he raced with some enthusiasm for a circuit before dropping himself out. 

He at least completed his final start when third to Jury Duty at Down Royal last month, but it would take one of his former handler’s greatest training performances to get him home in front.

Rating - 3/10

6)   GO CONQUER    10     11-3       Nigel Twiston-Davies     Sam Twiston-Davies

Deserves another chance over these fences, having been hampered at the Canal Turn in the 2017 Topham when formerly with Jonjo O’Neill, and comes into this off the back of a highly consistent season. Third in the Sodexo Gold Cup on his return at Ascot in early November, he built on that with a second at Doncaster in December and was able to improve again in the Skybet Chase at the same course with an authoritative display. 

He is sure to give his supporters a run for their money, a bold jumper who likes to race fairly handy, but stamina concerns are enough to look elsewhere.

Rating - 5/10 

7)  MALA BEACH       11        11-2    Gordon Elliott      Mr Jamie Codd

Talented but fragile individual with the majority of his form coming on very soft ground. Was last seen when second to stablemate Jury Duty in his prep race at Down Royal, a more than satisfactory effort, but his trainer has bigger chances in the contest and his best days may well be behind him despite the rain hitting Merseyside.

Rating - 3/10

8)  MINELLA ROCCO     9      11-1     Jonjo O'Neill   Richie McLernon

2017 Gold Cup second to Sizing John underlines his class but hasn’t always been the most reliable of conveyances and was bitterly disappointing when pulled up early in the Ultima. Jonjo O’Neill’s record in staying chases, especially Grand Nationals, cannot be ignored but his jumping hasn’t always been particularly fluent, has suffered from breathing issues in the past, and there is the issue he could drop himself out of contention from an early stage. The rainfall on Thursday decreases what chance he had.

Rating - 1/10

9)  LAKE VIEW LAD       9      11-1      Nick Alexander  Henry Brooke

A very consistent individual who has been in the form of his life this campaign since being purchased by Trevor Hemmings, in search for his fourth win in the race, winning the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby in December before posting a career best to finish third off top weight in the Ultima at Cheltenham behind Beware The Bear and Vintage Clouds. 

He is unexposed in terms of a stamina test, versatile regarding ground having won on a sounder surface, and boasts excellent claims in becoming the third Scottish trained winner of the race.

Rating - 9/10

10)  PLEASANT COMPANY   11      11-1    Willie Mullins  Paul Townend

Last year’s runner up who jumped brilliantly throughout and looked a different horse to the one who may have been inconvenienced by the application of a hood on his first attempt. He arrives off a very similar preparation with two disappointing efforts to his name. but the latter of those saw him show some enthusiasm in the Thyestes and a return to Aintree may just revive him back to form.

Rating - 7/10

11)  BALLYOPTIC       9     11-1    Nigel Twiston-Davies  Tom Bellamy

Former Grade 1 winner at the course over hurdles in 2016, he fell short in his attempt to make up into a Stayers Hurdle performer but has shown a similar level of ability in nine starts over fences. A win in the Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby and second in the Scottish National at Ayr to Joe Farrell saw him finish ahead of leading fancy Vintage Clouds on both occasions, but he has excuses for his efforts this season.

He hasn’t always been the most fluent of jumpers, but took well to these fences on his return in the Becher Chase before falling at the 11th which is worth forgiving as he did little wrong at the obstacle. That set him back for the Welsh National at Chepstow where he ran respectably to finish sixth to Elegant Escape, before running no race whatsoever in Haydock’s Grand National Trial when pulled up.  

His trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, is no stranger to success over these fences having already bagged two Nationals with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002) plus, from a breeding perspective, the horse’s stallion, Old Vic, has produced countless Aintree performers with Comply Or Die (2008) and Don’t Push It (2010) along with plenty of placed contenders over the years. Granted a clear round, he has the ideal profile to go very close.

Rating - 9/10

  

12)  DOUNIKOS        8       11-0      Gordon Elliott   Jack Kennedy

Started out life over fences last season as a much improved horse, fitting the bill of the majority of his owner’s horses, by winning two on the bounce, including a Grade 2, before a fine fourth to Monalee at Leopardstown. His form afterwards tailed off, pulled up in three subsequent outings, and this season has seen him gradually improve as he returned to winning ways in the Punchestown National Trial in February. 

Of the Elliott lot, he appeals as being one of the stronger contenders in the bunch, especially his last piece of form tying in with General Principle, and there is the chance he has more to offer over staying distances.

Rating - 8/10

13)  RATHVINDEN       11      11-0    Willie Mullins  Ruby Walsh

Showcased his Aintree credentials last March when taking the National Hunt Chase at the expense of Ms Parfois, who misses this due to a foot issue, and was initially a long-term fancy for the race.

A decent novice hurdler back in 2013/14, finishing third to Faugheen, in what was known then as the Neptune, at Cheltenham over 2m5f, injury has plagued his career since but, for the last two years, connections have had a clear run and he amassed plenty of chasing experience as a novice. He looked as good as ever in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on his seasonal debut, beating Alpha Des Obeaux, but he bids to be the first horse since Aldaniti (1981) to win the National having only had one run in the calendar season.

While horses have run well in the race off a similar preparation or no run at all (this being no longer allowed) with examples including State Of Play, placed in three Nationals, and Mely Moss, second in 2000, history has proven there to be more of an advantage to horses who have had run often throughout the season. He warrants a huge amount of respect, especially being the choice of Ruby Walsh in search for his third win in the race, but can be overlooked for betting purposes.

Rating - 7/10

14)  ONE FOR ARTHUR     10      11-0    Lucinda Russell   Derek Fox

A hero whatever the result. The 2017 Grand National winner missed last season due to a small tendon injury but has failed to complete his two subsequent outings, unseating his rider both times at Aintree and Haydock, this season. He didn’t get far enough to give any indication of well being on the first of those outings, when losing Tom Scudamore at the third fence due to freshness, and the latter wouldn’t be Derek Fox’s finest hour as he was just beginning to creep into contention in the Peter Marsh having not appeared in love with the track.

The recent rain will play to his strengths and it would be fantastic to see him bang in contention on the run to the second last with a fighting chance. Being realistic, he could easily hit the frame with a recent schooling session at Carlisle showing the old spark still burns.

Rating - 7/10

15)  ROCK THE KASBAH    9       10-13     Philip Hobbs   Richard Johnson

A race the champion jockey is yet to have on his CV but not for lack of trying having gone desperately close with What’s Up Boys in 2002.

The son of Shirocco has proven to be an extremely useful performer throughout his career and won a key trial for this at Cheltenham in November over 3m3f. He was disappointing subsequently back at the Cotswold the following month and while likely to give a good account of himself, the lack of a prep run and softer ground tempers enthusiasm.

Rating - 6/10

16) WARRIORS TALE      10      10-13    Paul Nicholls  Harry Cobden

The weak link of the Trevor Hemmings trio despite being the only runner to have tackled the fences and tasted success in the Grand Sefton in December. He would have been a very interesting runner in Friday’s Topham, especially with softer conditions underfoot, but instead come for this in which he didn’t get home last year and history appears likely to repeat itself.

Rating - 2/10

17)  REGAL ENCORE     11     10-12    Anthony Honeyball   TBC

The main fancy last year until being ruled out at the eleventh hour, it is difficult, in hindsight, to have envisaged him going close with the Irish domination due to the conditions.

Both his efforts this season, at Aintree over hurdles and Ascot last time, have both offered encouragement but his overall consistency can be questioned as he is prone to throwing in a poor effort.

Rating - 5/10

18) MAGIC OF LIGHT    8      10-11   Jessica Harrington  Paddy Kennedy

Surprisingly a first ever runner in the race for Jessica Harrington and bids to become the first mare since Nickel Coin (1951) to land the prize. 

She has enjoyed a fruitful campaign, picking up valuable black-type in Listed chases at Newbury and Huntingdon plus was successful in a Grade 2 hurdle at Ascot, and bounced back from unseating her rider at Fairyhouse with a decent enough effort at Cheltenham behind Beware The Bear. Connections have talked her up to be a stayer and she could prove a big price if improving for the step up in trip.

Rating - 7/10

 19)  A TOI PHIL        9        10-11    Gordon Elliott    Denis O'Regan

Six-time winner over fences who has recently run with credit over hurdles at Cheltenham when fifth to Sire Du Berlais in the Pertemps Final. That said, he doesn’t appear particularly well handicapped back over fences and isn’t guaranteed to stay.

Rating - 3/10

20)  JURY DUTY      8         10-11     Gordon Elliott       Robbie Power

Boasts the unusual acclaim of being the second horse to attempt the American Grand National/Aintree double since Battleship in the 1930s, but the similarity of each race ends with the name title, the Far Hills contest being run over 2m5f over brush hurdles. He possesses a proven track record in big-field handicaps and should take to this unique test, travels particularly well through his races, but whether he will see it out from the Melling Road is a slight concern.

Rating - 7/10

21)  NOBLE ENDEAVOR     10     10-10   Gordon Elliott  Mark Enright

Has always shown plenty of ability in top handicaps throughout his career, winner of the 2016 Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, and returned from over a year off the track with a run full of promise in the Becher Chase when, despite being beaten 41 lengths, jumping well before getting tired and finishing ninth. A quiet outing in the Ultima signalled the intent of getting another run in and, out of the Elliott runners, he appeals as being one who has had this as his yearly target. Definite each-way credentials.

Rating - 8/10

22)  MONBEG NOTORIOUS     8     10-10   Gordon Elliott  Sean Bowen

A useful novice chaser last term winning the Thyestes, a race both Hedgehunter (2005) and Numbersixvalverde (2006) took as younger horses en-route to Aintree success, and a Grade 2 at Navan, his first two efforts this season yielded little, beaten a grand total of 169 lengths, but he shaped with a bit more encouragement behind Pairofbrowneyes at Naas last month. Plenty of rain would boost his chances but he doesn’t appear to lack the tactical pace required to win a National.

Rating - 4/10

23)  RAMSES DE TEILLEE    7     10-9    David Pipe    David Noonan

Appears to have become the complete package this season, having flattered to deceive on a few occasions earlier on in his career, and dispelled the myth of just being a horse who operates around Chepstow when backing up his second in the Welsh National by filling the same spot in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. The last seven-year-old to win was Bogskar (1940) and while he has the requisite experience to go well for a long way, the feeling is he will be undone by stronger stayers in the field.

Rating - 6/10

24)  TEA FOR TWO        10        10-9   Jane Williams  Lizzie Kelly

Former winner of the Bowl here in 2017 and a first ride in the Grand National for Lizzie Kelly. His efforts prior to the cross country appeared to be of a horse on the downgrade and, although he raced with enough zest before departing at Cheltenham to suggest he would enjoy this experience, others are readily preferred. 

Rating - 4/10

25)   JUST A PAR          12     10-2   James Moffatt   Aidan Coleman

First reverse to make the cut following the withdrawal of Mall Dini and would be some story with his trainer’s wife expecting to have a baby in the next couple of days. Past winner of the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, he has had two attempts at the National with very little success and, despite a fair enough effort in the Becher Chase, a similar fate looks likely.

Rating - 1/10

26)  STEP BACK        9         10-7    Mark Bradstock   Nico de Boinville

A very easy winner of last year’s Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, his two runs this season at Chepstow and Warwick have offered some promise and Aintree appeals as the kind of track to see him to best effect with him being a good jumper who likes to race on the front end. However, all his best efforts have come going right-handed and it was notable, particularly at Chepstow, how he kept jumping out to his right and a repetition on this occasion would harm his chances.

Rating - 5/10

27) ULTRAGOLD       11      10-7     Colin Tizzard    Tom O’Brien

Dual winner of the Topham, he clearly has an appetite for these obstacles having placed on his other two outings, including in the Becher Chase when staying on into third. However, he had his stamina limitations exposed in the Classic Chase over 3m5f at Warwick which, unfortunately, hampers any kind of temptation to back him as he will give a bold account for a fair way.

Rating - 5/10

28)  BLOW BY BLOW      8       10-6    Gordon Elliott   Andrew Ring

Smart bumper performer in his time and a Cheltenham Festival winner over hurdles last year, but they are the only positives to his name. His chasing career hasn’t gone to plan and this appears a last resort having been pulled up twice in his last three starts with the other effort seeing him beaten 65 lengths last at Navan in February. Good luck to anyone backing him!

Rating - 1/10

29)  UP FOR REVIEW        10      10-6    Willie Mullins  Danny Mullins

Campaigned sparingly due to issues throughout his career, at times he has appeared to have star quality, particularly when taking a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Punchestown back in 2015, but has also disappointed in high pressure situations. A promising third to the ill-fated Invitation Only set him up for a crack at the Ultima where, for the majority of the contest, he travelled very sweetly until belting the third last and weakening out of things. He is lightly raced over fences and could be open to further improvement but, that said, the impression he has left for a while is that he needs plenty to go his own way and that he might not be the most generous off the bridle.

Rating - 4/10

30)  SINGLEFARMPAYMENT  9     10-6    Tom George  Paddy Brennan

An enigma but a highly talented one. He has threatened for an awful long time that a big prize of this nature is within his grasp but, more often that not, throws them away by not consenting to put his head down when it matters most. No better example of this came at Cheltenham in December behind Cogry but, despite his quirks, he could just be the sort to take to the experience and hit the frame at generous odds with staying unlikely to be an issue.

Rating - 8/10

31)  VIEUX LION ROUGE     10        10-6    David Pipe  Tom Scudamore

The Becher Chase here in December is essentially his Gold Cup having won it in 2016 and finished second to Walk In The Mill at the end of last year. This will be his fourth attempt at the National and hasn’t stayed on three previous occasions so there is no reason to suggest why he will at the fourth attempt.

Rating - 4/10

32)  VALSEUR LIDO      10   10-6   Henry de Bromhead  Rachael Blackmore

Seems to have become a wise guy horse as he carries over a stone less than 12 months ago when shaping well for a long way before tiring and ending up in eighth place. He showed some life when third to Rathvinden in the Bobbyjo but it is difficult to envisage him winning for all it would be a fantastic story with Rachael Blackmore attempting to become the first woman to ride the winner of the race.

Rating - 2/10

33)  VINTAGE CLOUDS      9      10-4     Sue Smith   Danny Cook

Sue Smith became the third woman to train a winner of the race when Aurora’s Encore (2013) caused a huge upset and confidence is high she can join Jenny Pitman in winning the race twice with a very popular grey. He arrives 5lb well in off the back of a fine effort in the Ultima when second to Beware The Bear and has solid form in a variety of staying chases, but he doesn’t appeal as a likely winner. 

The majority of his runs follow a similar trend. He races handily, hits a flat spot, before plugging on into a place convincing people he will land a big pot. Likely to reward each-way supporters but will probably find a couple too good.

Rating - 7/10

34)  GENERAL PRINCIPLE   10       10-4      Gordon Elliott  J J Slevin

Irish National winner from last April who has been brought along steadily throughout the season running in competitive handicaps. Campaigned within the regions of 3m for his first couple of starts, he stepped up on a couple of quiet efforts when benefiting from the step back up in trip when third in the Punchestown National Trial to Dounikos. 

A subsequent prep run in the Ultima at Cheltenham was, on the face of it, not ideal when making a crucial mid-race error. However, Jack Kennedy, his rider on that occasion, wisely looked after him once his chance had gone, with this in mind, and he is reunited with J J Slevin for the first time since they paired up at Fairyhouse 12 months ago. Shortlist material.  

Rating - 9/10

35)  LIVELOVELAUGH      9      10-4    Willie Mullins  David Mullins

Similar to the yard’s Children’s List who lined up 12 months ago in the sense he doesn’t have enough experience for the challenge that lies ahead. Jumping has also been an issue in the past and stamina is in no way assured.

Rating - 1/10 

36)  WALK IN THE MILL     9        10-4      Robert Walford    James Best

Missed out last year due to a setback on the morning of the race but showed his appetite for the fences when running out a convincing winner of the Becher Chase and going up enough in the handicap to guarantee his place. A couple of subsequent efforts back over hurdles against decent novices at Chepstow and Exeter have kept him ticking over nicely and he cannot be discounted trying to become the first horse to complete the Becher/National double in the same season.

Rating - 8/10

37)  FOLSOM BLUE        12      10-4    Gordon Elliott  Luke Dempsey

One thing is guaranteed and that is he will definitely stay. A very unlucky fourth in the Irish National when broadsided at the final fence, he showed some promise when fourth in a Sandown handicap hurdle in February but was an underwhelming favourite in the Midlands National and the obvious concern is whether he will have the toe to keep up with these.

Rating - 5/10

38)  CAPTAIN REDBEARD   10     10-3   Stuart Coltherd  Sam Coltherd

Got no further than Foinavon first time round in last year’s National and didn’t look entirely in love with the course when making a litany of errors behind Warriors Tale in the Grand Sefton. Apart from that effort, his form throughout the season has been consistent but a return to Aintree doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Rating - 2/10

39)  BLESS THE WINGS     14      10-3   Gordon Elliott   Robert Dunne

Ran a smashing race to finish third 12 months ago but now has the arduous task of becoming the first ever 14-year-old to win the race and, for all he has an excellent pilot in Robbie Dunne, his recent form looks to be fairly regressive.

Rating - 3/10

40)  JOE FARRELL        10     10-2   Rebecca Curtis   Adam Wedge

Last year’s Scottish National winner managed to scrape in by the skin of his teeth when Pairofbrowneyes was ruled out on Thursday morning and he built on his return at Newbury, a run which he clearly needed, when second to Chic Name at the same venue a fortnight ago. Has been well backed in recent days, handles softer ground, and the yard have a solid record with their staying chasers.

Rating - 8/10

Predicted Finishing Order

1) Tiger Roll

2) Ballyoptic

3) Lake View Lad

4) General Principle

5) Singlefarmpayment

6) Walk In The Mill

The very best of luck to you in trying to find the winner!